The business of Dilwale and Bajirao Mastani combined in the first week is less than Bajrangi Bhaijaan with the budgets of both films higher than Bajrangi Bhaijaan. That basically illustrates what has gone wrong this Christmas. Bajrangi Bhaijaan was an Eid week and had a couple of holidays while this was a normal week but the Christmas releases together came on more screens which sort of cancels out the holiday factor.
The combined business of Dilwale and Bajirao Mastani is around 181 crore nett while Bajrangi Bhaijaan was 183.50 crore nett. PK last year in the same week managed 181 crore nett though had the Christmas Day holiday in the last day of its first week.
Dilwale was a safe film before release but the domestic business will be well short of what is expected of a Shahrukh Khan starrer while Bajirao Mastani is now certain for recovery as it has sustained and is on a very good run at the box office and recovery was probably the target for the film as budget is very high against the face value. The strong run of Bajirao Mastani after its opening weekend will be the only plus in this holiday period.
That aside the problem is that today business is really about the first week as even the most successful films get 60-70% of the shares in week one. The first week share of Dilwale is around 53 crore and Bajirao Mastani is around 45 crore, now where can you go from here with the shares coming down to 40-45% of nett business in week two and even lower after.
The holidays will mean they will sustain better than on normal week but the problem is you are not pushing the bottom lines as the share of business coming back to distributors / producers is far less than it would have been had that business occurred in the first week.
Bajirao Mastani will easily sustain best out of the two and lets say the film goes on a fantastic run from here and somehow even manages to get to the 200 crore nett mark which would be ahuge feat considering the start. In real terms the distributor share at 200 crore nett will still be only as much as the first week share of Prem Ratan Dhan Payo (93 crore in extended eight day first week) at best.
Realistically the final distributor shares are going to be in the range of 70-80 crore for both Dilwale and Bajirao Mastani but if both films had an open week then the first week share alone of Dilwale was certain to reach the above range while Bajirao Mastani would have been 10-15% below and these are probably worse case scenarios.