Exit polls predict LDF win, BJP vote share increases
Two exit polls predicted an LDF win in the May 16 assembly polls, one by a comfortable margin, the other virtually a sweep. There was considerable ambiguity about BJP-led NDA’s performance, with one poll predicting between 0 to 4 seats for the front while the other one forecast 0 to 3 seats.
Times Now-C Voter survey predicted 74 to 82 seats for LDF and 54 to 62 seats for UDF. This survey predicted an LDF vote share of 42.6% votes while it was 40.8% for UDF, in both cases lower than it was in 2011. NDA’s vote share, according to this survey, sees a near doubling from 6.1% in 2011 to 12.2% in this election. The India Today-Axis poll predicted a landslide victory for LDF. The poll, which analysed a sample comprising around 16,000 voters and was conducted over two weeks starting May 2, predicted 88 to 101 seats to LDF, surprising even the most optimist leftists. UDF will win 38 to 48 seats while Others -that include strong independents such as PC George (Poonjar) and K K Rema (Vadakara) -bag one to four seats. It predicts 0 to 3 seats for NDA.
This survey also found that there was strong anti-incumbency feeling among voters in the state that translated into a wave in favour of LDF.According to this survey , NDA’s vote share shrinks to 11%. It also predicted failure for several ministers in the Oommen Chandy cabinet.
Monday’s polling was heavy in the state with the polling percentage put at 74.12% at the time of going to print. Sources in the election commission however said that chances of the figure going by two to four percent when final figures will be compiled on Tuesday are high, as long queues were visible in several booths in many districts even at 6pm, when the polls closed.