Election to the 234 member Tamil Nadu assembly is more than two months away and no party has finalised its alliance partners yet, but psephologists have begun their predictions on the poll outcome.
C-Voter has predicted a hung assembly with the ruling AIADMK and its allies expected to get only 116 seats, falling short of an absolute majority and down from the 203 seats they got in 2011. Its arch rival DMK will get 101 seats, up from 31it got along with its allies in 2011, the survey said.
The survey has not taken into account any alliance partner for the two Dravidian majors while predicting their prospects. C-Voter was started by New Delhi-based Yashwant Deshmukh, who claims his organization was ranked by renowned pollster Nate Silver as amongst the accurate pollsters during the 2012 US presidential campaign. In the 2011 assembly election, AIADMK won 150 seats. It had allies like DMDK (29), CPM (10), CPI (9) and a few other smaller parties.
DMK won 23 seats, and its allies Congress 5 and PMK 3.BJP , which is yet to find a strong ally for the forthcoming polls, is expected to draw a blank but its vote share would be around 5%, up from 2.2% it secured in 2011. The voteshare of AIADMK and its allies is expected to fall from 51.9% to 41.1% and that of DMK and allies would increase from 37.92% in 2011 to around 40%, the survey said.